Professional-grade financial modelling for STR operators. Run the numbers before you sign — cash flow, payback period, and stress-test scenarios.
Monthly cash flow & ROI
Break-even occupancy
40/55/70% stress-tests
First month + security deposit
Net Monthly Profit
-$774
$2,925 revenue − $3,699 costs
Annual Net Profit
-$9,289
Annual ROI
-84.1%
on $11,050 invested
STR Premium RatioThe STR premium is how much more you earn vs your rent. Experts recommend at least 1.5x, ideally 2x+, to cover all operating costs and profit.
1.54xViable but tightStartup Cost Recovery ($11,050)
Not profitable — startup costs never recovered
Break-even Occupancy
Quick Scenarios
Drag the occupancy slider to stress-test your numbers before you commit.
Occupancy Rate
65%At 65% occupancy
-$774/mo
$2,925 revenue · 20 nights
Best case (85%)
$3,825 revenue
-$295/mo
-$3,544/yr
Expected (65%)
$2,925 revenue
-$774/mo
-$9,289/yr
Worst case (45%)
$2,025 revenue
-$1,253/mo
-$15,034/yr
Break-Even Occupancy
You need at least 97% occupancy to cover all costs. Below this, you lose money every month.
Break-Even Nightly Rate
$174.93
At 65% occupancy, you need at least this nightly rate to break even.
Cash Reserve Runway
At current occupancy you're losing $774/month. With $3,000 in reserves, you can survive 3.9 months before running out.
Note: Default values are conservative — most scenarios show a loss until you enter your actual numbers. Enter your real nightly rate and market occupancy above to see your deal's true potential.
| Scenario | Occupancy | Monthly Profit | Annual Profit | Survives? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peak Season | 85% | -$295 | -$3,544 | |
| Normal | 65% | -$774 | -$9,289 | |
| Off Season | 45% | -$1,253 | -$15,034 | |
| Disaster (2 bad months) | 30% | -$1,612 | -$19,343 |
Starting from your total startup investment (month 0), this chart shows how your cumulative cash position grows (or shrinks) each month based on your projected net profit. Red means you're still in the hole; green means you've recovered your investment and are in profit.
Green line = cumulative cash flow in profit territory ·Red line = still recovering startup costs ·Amber dashed = payback month
Rental arbitrage profitability starts with a simple formula: gross STR revenue minus total monthly costs (rent, utilities, platform fees, cleaning, insurance, and maintenance reserve) equals your monthly net profit. Multiply by 12 for your annual figure, then divide by your total startup investment to get your ROI percentage. The break-even occupancy rate — the minimum occupancy needed to cover all fixed costs — is derived analytically by dividing your fixed monthly costs by your net revenue per occupied night, giving you a hard lower bound for the deal to work.
The STR premium ratio is your projected monthly gross STR revenue divided by your monthly rent — it tells you how much more you're earning from short-term guests compared to what you're paying your landlord. A ratio below 1.5× is generally unviable once operating costs are factored in; 1.5×–2.0× is tight but workable in low-cost markets; 2.0× or above gives you a healthy margin that can absorb slow months and unexpected expenses. Experienced arbitrage operators typically target 2×+ before committing to a lease.
Break-even occupancy is the percentage of nights that must be booked each month for your STR revenue to exactly cover every cost — rent, utilities, platform fees, cleaning, and all other recurring expenses. For a low-risk arbitrage deal, aim for a break-even occupancy of 50% or lower; this means even a slow month with half the property empty still keeps you in the black. Deals with a break-even above 60% carry significant risk — one bad month or a regulatory disruption could force you to cover rent from your own pocket.
Rental arbitrage is when you sign a lease on a property, furnish it, and list it on platforms like Airbnb as a short-term rental. Your profit is the difference between your STR revenue and your total costs (rent + operating expenses). It's one of the lowest-capital ways to enter the STR business since you don't need to buy property — typical startup costs are $5,000–$15,000 vs $50,000–$150,000+ for a property purchase.
Aim for your projected gross STR revenue to be at least 1.5x your monthly rent, ideally 2x or more. At 1.5x, you'll have thin margins after operating costs. At 2x+, you have a healthy buffer for slow months, unexpected repairs, and seasonality. Below 1.5x, the deal likely doesn't work.
The top risks are: (1) Lease violation if you don't have written landlord permission, (2) Local STR regulations that could ban or restrict your listing, (3) Seasonality causing 2–3 months of low occupancy where you still owe full rent, (4) Landlord not renewing your lease after you've invested in furnishing, (5) Market oversaturation driving down rates and occupancy. Always have a cash reserve for at least 2–3 months of rent.
Most successful arbitrage operators recover their startup investment within 3–6 months at decent occupancy (60%+). If it takes longer than 6 months, the deal's margins are likely too thin. Use the payback period calculator above to see your specific timeline.
Absolutely yes. Most standard leases prohibit subletting. Operating without written permission is the single biggest risk — you can face eviction, lose your deposit, and forfeit your furnishing investment. Approach your landlord with a professional pitch and offer transparency about your plans, insurance, and maintenance standards.
This is why the stress test section exists. Know your break-even occupancy BEFORE signing the lease. If your break-even is above 55%, the deal is risky — a bad month or two could put you in the red. Ideally, your break-even occupancy should be 40–50%, giving you a comfortable buffer.
These tools help you launch, manage, and grow your rental arbitrage business — directly improving every number in this calculator.
The leading short-term rental insurance provider, purpose-built for Airbnb and Vrbo hosts. Essential for arbitrage operators — protects you, your landlord, and your guests.
Key Features
Dynamic pricing engine that maximises your nightly rate using market data and demand signals — the single biggest lever to improve your STR revenue in arbitrage.
Key Features
All-in-one platform to manage your arbitrage listings across Airbnb, Vrbo, and Booking.com. Automate messaging, sync calendars, and track financials from one dashboard.
Key Features
Find and manage professional cleaners who specialise in short-term rental turnovers. Auto-schedules cleaning after each checkout and syncs with your booking calendar.
Key Features
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Need a detailed furnishing budget?
Use our Startup Cost Estimator →Get a full itemised budget for furnishing and launching your arbitrage property.
Calculate true STR profit after all expenses — break-even occupancy, margin, and RevPAN.
Run the real numbers to see whether STR or LTR earns more for your property.